вторник, 13 марта 2012 г.

Mideast foes nearing the heart of the talks

WASHINGTON After weeks of maneuvering by Israel and its Arabneighbors to gain the public relations and procedural upper hand inthe Middle East peace process, the parties say they are finally readyto start talking about the issues.

The long-delayed talks are expected to start today. But thecloser the participants get to talking about substance, the wider thegulf between Arabs and Israelis is likely to appear.

The negotiations consist officially of three - but reallyinvolve four - sets of talks that will put Israel in separatesessions with Syria, Lebanon and a joint Palestinian-Jordaniandelegation.

If the delegations manage to get past more procedural haggling,sources familiar with the peace process believe the early stages ofthe talks will approach the different issues according to thesenegotiating strategies: Israeli-Palestinian talks. The effort to reach an understandingabout the immediate future of the West Bank and Gaza Strip is themost pressing of all the issues because of the unrest that continuesamong the Palestinian population of 1.7 million. However, it also isthe one that both sides believe is most likely to result in some kindof agreement, or at least temporary arrangement.

The Palestinian negotiators, all residents of the territories,will begin by espousing the Palestine Liberation Organizations's callfor an immediate end to Israeli occupation, followed by creation ofan independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.However, almost everyone involved appears to agree that thePalestinians have no hope of realizing that goal at this time.

Instead, Israel, with the acquiescence of the United States, hasinsisted on basing its position on a formula reached at the 1978 CampDavid talks that called for a five-year period of limited self-rulefor the territories, with their final status to be determined at theend of that time.

Israel is expected to seek limits that will prevent thePalestinians from using self-rule as the basis for a futureindependent state.

The most contentious issue in the autonomy talks undoubtedlywill center on Israel's policy of building Jewish settlements in theterritories. The Palestinians will demand that they be halted, andIsrael is expected to argue that settlements should be a subject fornegotiation only when the time comes to settle the permanent statusof the territories. Israel-Syria. The overt hostility toward Israel of Syrian PresidentHafez Assad's government makes this the negotiation that observersexpect to be the most difficult. The central issue involves Syria'sdesire to regain the strategic Golan Heights, occupied by Israelsince 1967, and Israel's contention that it must hold onto the Golanto protect itself against possible future attack by Syria.

Israeli sources say they will contend that the goal of the talksis a peace treaty between the two countries. However, Israeliofficials say their government is unlikely to go beyond some kind ofvague offer to recognize Syrian "sovereignty" over part of the Golan,while keeping it under Israel's physical control.

In a bow to Assad, the United States has suggested that Israelconsider at least partial withdrawal from the Golan, which Israel hasformally annexed. Israel-Lebanon. The new Lebanese government of President EliasHrawi wants Israeli forces to vacate the security zone that itoccupies in southern Lebanon as a buffer against incursions by PLOterrorists. It also wants Israel to end its support of a Christianmilitia battling Shiite Muslim groups in that area.

But these aims have been complicated by the fact that Hrawi'sgovernment is a virtual puppet of Syria and has little control over acountry badly fractured by years of civil war. Israel-Jordan. Beyond the general goal of ending the technicalstate of war between the two countries, Jordan's real importance inthe talks is to serve as a cover for the Palestinians. Israeladamantly refuses to negotiate with the PLO, and to deal with anyfree-standing Palestinian delegation would be an admission ofPalestinian sovereignty.

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